The estimate was provided by The Association of Independent Festivals (AIF) following the results of their recent survey, which revealed that at least half of the association’s membership who had yet to cancel were still planning to push on with their events later this year while 22 per cent are currently unsure.

The survey was released earlier this month after the final stage of unlocking COVID-19 restrictions was delayed by the government. The final stage was intended to allow for large-scale events to go ahead as long as all the correct safety measures were in place.

The government was meant to publish the early results from its Events Research Programme (ERP) pilot events ahead of final unlocking, in order to give festival organisers the appropriate time to prepare for their events. However, the results are still yet to be released, leading to the threat of legal action by some high-profile figures if the data isn’t released soon.

Although yesterday June 24th the government claimed that the data will be published “shortly” so we will have to wait and see if they follow through on their claim. There have been question marks over the UK government’s handling of the situation which has led to accusations that they are “pushing live music off a cliff-edge”, and endangering the future of the industry through their failure to publish the results.

It is felt by many that the government is not doing enough to support the arts so much so that AIF CEO Paul Reed claimed that “This is an existential issue; the 2021 season is collapsing without decisive Government action and there is a real risk of these festivals not returning.”

Reed could well be right as on top of the government cancelling the festivals the bodies that support them could also greatly suffer. The AIF members are estimated to have spent an average of £451,500 on festival planning for 2021 to date, with costs ranging from £5,000 to as much as £4million. While the organisers have spent, on average, 25 per cent of their overall costs. The survey covered festivals that took place from July 23-September 26 with capacities between 5,000 and 70,000.

We are absolutely devastated to announce that unfortunately, we will no longer be holding Boomtown Chapter One: The Gathering this year and it will now take place from 10 – 14th August 2022

Find more details and ticket FAQ’s here: https://t.co/bu5Lw71mLj pic.twitter.com/9rM5BFVSfw

— Boomtown Fair (@BoomtownFair) April 20, 2021

According to The Guardian, “26% of all festivals with a capacity of more than 5,000 people have been cancelled by their organisers.” Most of these are a result of the insurance they have, or lack thereof. With 2021 being still a year of uncertainty, there are chances that more festivals will have to do last minute cancellations. If that were to happen, they would suffer huge financial losses, which is why many are cancelling now. One thing that organisers say would restore confidence in the festival season would be if the government provided an insurance policy like some other European countries. The AIF chief executive Paul Reed informs:

“Without a safety net, independent promoters cannot begin to confidently invest in their events. They currently have no protection should a Covid-related issue result in the cancellation of their festival. If government-backed insurance is off the table, festival organisers deserve to know what government proposes as an alternative to prevent the widespread collapse of the festival season.”

The UK government has been working on a roadmap, using the recent festival in Sefton Park as a gauge for other future festivals.

The advice comes from a collaboration between the following bodies: the Association of Festival Organisers (AFO), the Events Industry Forum (EIF) and Attitude Is Everything, alongside additional guidance from the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS) and Public Health England (PHE). They have shared their current guidance in a document which you can read in full here. As the situation progresses, the advice will update.

Available now and free to all from @ThePurpleGuide website. The aim is to assist festival organisers, local authorities and other industry parties in assessing risk levels and planning based on a flexible, pragmatic and realistic approach to the current pandemic.

— AIF (@AIF_UK) October 13, 2020

The COVID-19 Supplementary Guidance offers a lot of information for festival organisers that will perhaps be of little interest to festival-goers. Naturally, much of this advice depends on a number of constantly changing variables, including the situation with testing for coronavirus and the potential for a vaccine to be in place. Terms that have become part of our everyday vocabulary come up here as well; there is talk of festival staff wearing PPE, festival-goers bringing their own disposable masks and hand sanitiser, and embracing the NHS Track & Trace initiative.

The document also contains a “mitigation checklist”, as relevant to the current state of the pandemic. This is a list of questions that comprehensively covers the planning and safety of every conceivable area of a festival, including the organisation of the outdoor space, crowd control, and the safety of festival staff.

The guidance is thoughtful with regard to all of this uncertainty; it notes, that the experience of putting on a festival during COVID will be a first for many of them, and also that COVID should not eclipse the rest of their health and safety provision. The COVID-19 Supplementary Guidance maintains a positive tone throughout.

Despite all the uncertainty that the industry currently faces, it concludes with a positive note: “ultimately, the music festival industry is principally defined by planning for and implementing mitigation of risk … Festival organisers are already practically in a very good place to meet the challenges that COVID-19 bring to the festival sector.”

Paul Reed, the CEO of the Association of Independent Festivals, said this about the new guidance:  “Risk mitigation is what festival promoters do for a living, so the intent of this guidance is to outline Covid-19 specific planning considerations that will allow for bespoke risk assessment approaches in liaison with relevant authorities and agencies … I’d like to thank the AIF Ops Group for leading on this important piece of work and also DCMS, PHE officials and the wider festival industry for their invaluable contributions.”

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The live events sector is in crisis. Today, we join with many others to call on the government to provide urgent support to protect an industry which means so much to so many, and provides billions to the economy. #WeMakeEvents (@fineline_lighting)

A post shared by Glastonbury Festival (@glastofest) on Sep 30, 2020 at 4:02am PDT

The document presents comprehensive and reassuring guidance about the state of festivals next year. It is undoubtedly going to be an enormous job for festival organisers, and much remains subject to change. In wake of the new advice, though, festival-goers can finally relax for the time being, and cast their minds longingly to much simpler organisational tasks, like what to wear, and who to see if the line-up clashes.